First goal in Argentina-Chile rematch at Copa America final will be crucial

WAPDUT FC's Steve Nicol discusses what the Copa America Centenario means to Lionel Messi's legacy and the rest of the players competing in the tournament.

One of the most fascinating aspects of football is that, as a low-scoring game, any match has the potential to unfold in a number of different ways, often depending on who scores first.
Take, for example, the group-stage meeting between Argentina and Chile in Santa Clara, California, on June 6. It was an intense encounter, a midfield battle with ebb and flow. Soon before half-time with the game level at 0-0, Argentina centre-back Ramiro Funes Mori played a bad pass out of defence. Marcelo Diaz won the ball for Chile, played it forward and a little lay-off from Arturo Vidal left Alexis Sanchez with only the goalkeeper to beat. Sergio Romero produced a wonderful save, but Sanchez should have scored -- and had he done so, the game would've almost certainly taken a different course.

Argentina

Chile

Instead, shortly after the break, Chile made a mistake and were punished for it. Charles Aranguiz was caught in possession, and Ever Banega passed to Angel Di Maria to slide home his shot. From that point on, it was Argentina's game. Jose Pedro Fuenzalida headed home in stoppage time to bring the score back to 2-1, but by then, it was mere consolation. And so even without Lionel Messi, yet to fully recover from the injury sustained in a warm-up friendly, Argentina had won.
A year ago, of course, Chile came out on top in the 2015 final even with Messi on the pitch. On that occasion, Aranguiz was the hero. Usually, his lung power is employed offensively, making runs into the opposing penalty box and appearing as the extra man in attack. This time, though, he had a more defensive role, ensuring that Messi was isolated from his teammates.
Aranguiz was the man of the match, but it could have gone wrong. In the last minute, Messi finally got away, took out the defence and slipped a pass on the right to Ezequiel Lavezzi, who guided a low cross towards the far post, where Gonzalo Higuain was arriving. Carrying a little too much weight at the time, Higuain was a fraction of a second late, and at full stretch, he could only divert his shot into the wrong side of netting. Had it gone in, then Chile's gamble -- sacrificing some of their attacking power to cover up against Messi -- would not have been seen as a success. Many would have said that the Chileans should have stuck to their own identity and tried to out-attack the Argentines. It would all look very different in football's history books.

Argentina saw off Chile in their group-stage opener, but things will be different in the final.

Sunday's final may also turn on such a small margin. And someone who looms very large in the history books, Diego Armando Maradona, has said that if Argentina fail to win, they should not come home.
It would certainly be a cruel blow to lose a final in a third consecutive year (last year's Copa and, of course, the 2014 World Cup). In comparison with both of those tournaments, Messi seems fresher this time, helped by being nursed through the group phases. Higuain looks much sharper, and there is the luxury of a relatively unused Sergio Aguero on the bench. As for the other member of the magic quartet, Di Maria broke down during the tournament -- just as he did in the first half of last year's final. He may be ready, but his selection remains a risk, and he could pay a price for being rushed back. But even without him, Argentina have talent to burn -- though by far the most significant part of it can be found inside that No. 10 shirt.
So how will Argentina bring Messi in the game and ensure that Chile are unable to neutralise him as they did last year? This is where Ever Banega comes in. Space on the field is opened up by his passing and movement. Banega will presumably be in charge of keeping the ball by moving in such a way that opens us space so Messi can then link up with his teammates.
It will help if Argentina are able to press as relentlessly as they did against the United States in Tuesday's semifinal, when they continually won the ball high up the field. This is one area in which the team will surely miss the quiet versatility of Augusto Fernandez, who pulled up in that game with a muscular injury. Fernandez has slotted in well to the team during this tournament, helping out wide on the right and through the middle, making forward runs and protecting the defence. He has also been of great importance when Argentina have pressed the ball. Likely replacement Lucas Biglia does not possess the same intensity.

Gonzalo Higuain, right, is in better form than in the 2015 final and could also turn the tide vs. Chile.

If Argentina are unable to press as well as they did in the semifinal, then Sunday's match could exploit their weakness at centre-back, something of a problem position. They rocked badly in the quarterfinal against Venezuela, but from a position of strength, because they were already two goals up. Now, Funes Mori and Nicolas Otamendi will come under the microscope. Their communication needs to be better, and against an in-form opponent, any slightly misplaced passes out of defence will invite danger.
In that first meeting in Santa Clara, Chile were perhaps too eager to get at the Argentine centre-backs, playing up quickly and directly to Eduardo Vargas. The snap long ball remains a weapon, but after their recent performances, Chile should be full of confidence in their own capacity to play their way through with their usual brand of rapid combination passing and committing men forward at speed.
This is a final in which both sides have the ability to hurt the other, which therefore holds out the promise of a wonderful spectacle. The same, of course, applied last year, and the 2015 decider turned out to be something of a disappointment. This year's rematch could twist in any number of directions, and an early goal could help it unfold in the most entertaining manner.